I’ve been on a roll of late, but still digging myself out after a terrible start. The Normal entries are 18-17 after a 4-1 week, while the Ugly ones are 20-14-1 after a perfect 5-0. I looked at the leaderboard, and the Ugly is still about seven games out of first.

Here are this week’s picks:

Normal 1 and 2

The Football Team usually plays the Eagles tough, and I like buying them low off a loss to the Giants and selling Philly high after a win over the Dolphins.

The Seahawks get a Browns team that lucked into a win last week due to a confluence of miracles not seen since the parting of the Red Sea. Fade.

The Lions got destroyed, so I love buying them low at home against a doormat Raiders team.

The Chargers are a horrendous franchise, and I will almost certainly get rugged here and in Survivor (turns out I already used the Lions.) But I like them in this spot at home against a weak Bears team with a backup QB coming off an easy win.

The Bengals seem more like themselves of late, and the 49ers are starting Sam Darnold. Give me the points.

Ugly

Who in their right mind would take this garbage dink-and-dunk Packers squad getting only 1.5 points? Something’s weird, because this is ugly.

The Giants offensive line is not good, but it’s NFL-level again, and they’ve hung with the Bills and Team the last two weeks. This week, they get star LT Andrew Thomas back too.

My initial lean was the Colts. but I like to fade teams in tight, emotional losses the prior week, and the Saints have a good defense.

The Cowboys looked good against the Chargers two weeks ago, and Dak Prescott was sharp. But I’ll buy low on the Rams here to keep it close. Sean McVay > Mike McCarthy.

I had the Pats as my fifth team, but as I was writing it up I wasn’t feeling it. (Close game last week, Dolphins coming off a bad loss.) So I pivoted to the ugliest of all, the Panthers. I hate that they’re only getting three — in my picking pool, it’s 3.5 — but even though I’m buying the Texans, and the Panthers are a doormat, this feels like a stumble spot. It’s not called the “Ugly” entry for nothing.