Key principles for using Bayesian thinking:

1. **Start with base rates**: Always consider how common something is in general

2. **Weigh evidence quality**: Strong evidence should change beliefs more than weak evidence

3. **Update gradually**: Change beliefs in steps as new information comes in

4. **Avoid extremes**: Be cautious about 0% or 100% certainty

5. **Consider alternative explanations**: Look for other possibilities. nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m