No idea.
Discussion
According to Bard, 7.2 years is the average. Who knows how accurate that is.
If someone wanted to cause a disruption I agree this would be an excellent time to do it, as you say.
What are you thinking in relation to that duration?
Has to be a good chunk of 10y plus I’d think. Could shake things up with rates.
I have no clue how it would play out.
Do we already know what durations Yellen is mainly going to issue?
I would think longer durations since yields are lower.
In my mind, if China were to sell a bunch of treasuries with similar duration, that should make yields on those durations spike.