conspiracy community calls it the santa claus effect. its like asking a 5 year old to use occams razor for this problem. people are limited to the information they have as an individual

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Fascinating. From the perspective of the kid not knowing the lengths to which parents will go to support a lie or lie to themselves, or perpetuate something they think is productive but is actually counterproductive, it could be far more likely that Santa actually exists.

When I suspected that he didn't exist and then confirmed it from my friend who was a year older than me, I chose to believe that a version of him actually did exist: that the market of parents and guardians getting things for their kids and surprising them with stuff they actually want, is the real Santa Claus. Most kids don't end up with a creative solution like that and grow bitter though. It does serious damage, and the kid, hopefully, learns to not trust but to verify. Though it seems most people get so pessimistic that they take the easy way out and believe the next hundred lies they're told about how the world works and how they cab supposedly achieve happiness in it by following the prescribed patterns.