On the dollar, the main model I work with has the slope of the very front end of the US yield curve (<2y) as a strongly positive driver, slope of the belly (2-10y) as a negative driver, and US treasury market illiquidity as a strong positive driver.

I’ll fully work it out on here one day, but this model has nailed all the recent tops and bottoms (recently January 2025 and June-ish). Very strong signal for risk assets etc.

Currently implying a fair value 96-101, if it goes above or below that it’s usually an extremely strong signal.