Bloodbath feared as rebels trap thousands in Sudan city. How did we get here and what might come next?

e western Darfur region, amid a brutal struggle for territory that has led to alleged genocide and contributed to one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.

For more than a year, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has besieged El Fasher, its final major barrier to controlling Darfur. The RSF aims to establish a parallel government in the region. It has been battling the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for power since April 2023.

Estimates suggest that more than 150,000 people have died due to the conflict, while an additional 14 million have been displaced from their homes.

Sudan’s army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is also the de facto head of state, acknowledged the rebels’ capture of El Fasher. In a broadcast on Monday, he stated that his troops retreated from the city due to the destruction and systematic killing of civilians.

Justin Lynch, a Sudan researcher and managing director of Conflict Insights Group, a data analytics and conflict monitoring organization, told CNN that the RSF’s capture of El Fasher marks “the beginning of what we fear to be a massacre of civilians.”

According to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations humanitarian chief, hundreds of thousands of civilians remain trapped in El Fasher, lacking food and health care. He reported that escape routes have been blocked amid “intense shelling and ground assaults” that “have engulfed the city.”

The RSF has claimed it is committed to protecting civilians in El Fasher and providing safe corridors for those seeking to leave.

However, the UN Human Rights Office said it had received “multiple, alarming reports” of the RSF committing atrocities including summary executions of civilians, and videos showing dozens of unarmed men being shot or lying dead surrounded by RSF fighters.

It also cited “indications of ethnic motivations for killings.”