Replying to Avatar Rusty Russell

I listened to the What Bitcoin Did Saylor podcast, and I really want to respond, though that may be unwise. But I want thoughtful, fearless content in my feed, so I should start making some, right?

Firstly, while analogies can provide useful guide rails for understanding, listening to people *arguing* using analogies makes you stupider. Debate the thing itself, not the words about the thing: it hurts my head to even think about doing this, so I won't.

Let's set my priors first: I assume we're talking about technically solid, well-vetted, backward compatible protocol changes: this is the minimum bar.

I don't wholesale agree with Saylor's "don't threaten anyone's investment" hard limit. This has happened multiple times in the past, from the dust limit breaking SatoshiDice, enabling Lightning threatening miner fees (real or not), and segwit breaking stealth ASICBoost. These interests can, and will, stand up for themselves and will compete against other benefits of changes.

To be explicit: I consider any protocol change which makes block space usage more efficient to be a win!

Obviously Saylor is invested in Bitcoin the asset, and can afford to do all his business onchain in any conceivable scenario. His projection of a Bitcoin world in which there are 100,000 companies and governments who use Bitcoin as the base layer is interesting:

1. This does not need "smart contracts", just signatures. By this model, Bitcoin Script was a mistake.

2. It can work if Bitcoin does not scale and is incredibly expensive to spend and hold. By this model, the consumer hardware wallet industry is a dead-end and needs to pivot to something else (nostr keys, ecash?)

3. You could do this with gold, today? Bitcoin here is simply an incremental, not fundamental, improvement. I think this is suggestive, though: that such a network would not be long-term stable, and very much subject to capture.

4. In this view, Saylor is simply a gold bug with first mover advantage, shilling his bags. That's fine, but it's important to understand people's motivations.

5. This vision does not excite me. I wouldn't have left Linux development to work on making B2B commerce more efficient. I wouldn't get up at 5:30am for spec calls, and I sure as hell wouldn't be working this cheap.

I believe we can make people's UTXOs more powerful, and thus feel a moral responsibility to do so. This gives them more control over their own money, and allows more people to share that control. I assume that more people will do good things than stupid things, because assuming the other way implies that someone should be able to stop them, and that's usually worse.

I believe the result will be a more stable, thus useful, Bitcoin network. I am aware that this will certainly benefit people with very different motivations than me (Saylor).

Thanks for reading, and sorry for the length!

737 max engineers also argued their efficiency improvements were technically solid, well-vetted, and backward compatible. We all know what happened after years of development, testing and certification.

Why risk adding new features and efficiency tweaks to the base layer when you can build on it?

For example: Silent Payments and Chaumian ecash projects are going to drastically improve Bitcoin’s reach and privacy without modifying and risking the base layer.

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They provably and obviously lied and did not go through the agreed upon testing process. Again you can hold this opinion and it’s valid. But this analogy is not.

The irony of making this analogy is that it actually illustrates the danger of NOT making protocol changes.

What happened with the 737Max is that Boeing wanted to put larger, more powerful, more fuel efficient engines on their 737. The only problem was that the physical structure of the plane (the base layer protocol, in this case) couldn’t handle larger engines.

The 737 has a relatively low ground clearance compared to competitors like the Airbus A320. Mounting the larger engines in the same position as previous 737s would cause them to hit the ground during takeoff and landing.

Instead of changing the protocol - the base, physical structure of the 737 itself - to safely allow for the new engines, what they did was a hack to try to bolt these new engines (think L2s) to work with the old 737 structure (protocol).

Boeing moved the engines forward and higher up on the wing. However, this gave the 737MAX a tendency to pitch up more during high angles of attack, increasing stall risk.

To correct for this they created flight control software to automatically push the plane’s nose down in certain situations to prevent stalls. This software relied on data from a single angle-of-attack sensor. There was no redundancy built in.

It was this faulty sensor that caused planes to go into a nosedive that the pilots (unfamiliar with how to override this overly complex software) couldn’t pull out of.

In its current state, with no added covenants or expressivity at the base layer, virtually all Bitcoin users will be forced to use bitcoin through some custodial arrangement (even if it is a collaborative custody model like Liquid or Fedimint).

You can think of these custodians as the sensor in the 737Max , where if they become faulty you lose everything.

And you can think of conservative, well-vetted covenants upgrade as redesigning and lengthening the landing gear (and making minor alterations to the wing and fuselage) to safely accommodate new engines.

Anyway, all of this to say that sometimes changing Bitcoin’s protocol is safer than not doing so. 

I believe this is one of those times.

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