A couple of thoughts on Venezuela 🇻🇪, in no particular order and for no specific reason.

- Well-prepared and rehearsed multi-agency assault.

- Signal to Russia and China in the form of a “military show of force and intelligence operation.”

- Bukele likely played his part by exchanging roughly 250 Tren de Aragua cartel members for 10 imprisoned US citizens, removing potential US hostage blackmail leverage. This dates back to July 2025 as preparatory steps for successful execution.

- Maduro was offered an exit (and safe haven) but acted cocky, with no contingency plan. He also overestimated the capabilities of Russian and Chinese military defense systems “sold” to Venezuela compared to available US capabilities.

- Maduro underestimated intelligence operators and assets in the country + probable leaks in his closest circles.

- The Cuban regime is in big trouble. Its only real ally was Venezuela, which supplied “free” oil and resources in exchange for medical and military personnel stationed there. Now the Cuban regime will face hard times without regional support, and its other allies are distant and won’t make the difference.

- Maduro’s removal from Venezuela will also affect Russia, as it will lose the ability to sell “laundered” Russian oil through this proxy. Russia still sells oil through other proxies but Venezuela was significant.