On money, liquidity and eurodollar - or why stablecoins more often used as money comparing to bitcoin - against Austrian economics expectations - and in the future this doesn’t seem to change.

Imaging you run a factory producing metal chunks. Your supplier is an iron mine. A client who bought last consignment from you is late with the payment - but you still need to buy from the supplier to produce the next consignment.

Normally what you do is you go to the bank and take a loan - a credit against collateral of your factory assets (equity shares, goods and other forms of capital). However, during crisis fiat banks avoid high risk and do not provide credit - or ask interest rate which destroys your business model. That is why central bank system has emerged as a credit of last resort - but as we know it doesn’t work as expected.

In hyperbitcoinized world if you go to bitcoin hodlers (new form of bankers) - they would put even higher interest rate to match the bitcoin volatility risks. Thus, you can’t operate under such conditions.

Where are we left? A good factory with no real problems has cease to operate/stop ovens (which kills them) - why? Because there is no liquid money in form of credit available - and #Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be fixing that in any way (instead it will make the problem to be worse than in the gold standard age, since the gold can be mined - while bitcoin, after some period, is not).

So what market participants will do? First they will switch to barter (like in post-USSR in early 90-th), but because of its inefficiency soon they will invent their own credit liquid money - and, if it would happen today, it will be probably on form of crypto. This will be an IOU money. Eventually a new private banks will emerge which will be producing those money in return for collateral, doing risk scoring.

This is why I am after private banking school of economics - and not Austrian nonsense about economics being able to run with hard money made of scarcity. Money must be liquid.

This is the use case for crypto or digital finance - and the reason why stable coins gain such tracktion (before them it was eurodollar, which is in fact a private banking money not managed by central banks - a dominant form of money in the world as of today).

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#[0] This doesn’t really make sense. In a hyperbitcoinized world there would be very little volatility, there would be very few loans and farm more direct partner ships

Bitcoin is very different from gold: gold were constantly mined, while bitcoin mining will stop. With the growth of economy there will be growing demand for money, which will cause high interest rates - ie volatility. Bitcoiners believe into that with the memes “number go up” and “∞/21m”. Until the end of mining era the volatility will be severe - and hyperbitcoinisation makes this only worse.

Thus businesses has to outcompete the overall economy growth + premium on top for borrowed bitcoin interest + their own business margin.

No, businesses will not use bitcoin, they will invent their own liquid money w/o this inneded properties. The market Austrians love will decide against bitcoin adoption as money.

In a hyperbitcoinised would, every sensible business will have cash reserves, which they will draw on in times of crisis. This is possible because the savings do not lose purchasing power with time and will appreciate at the average rate of econic growth.

Further, around half of all Bitcoins will be held, and the other half will be in circulation. The total amount of monetised goods will be backed by half of the total amount of Bitcoin. If more Bitcoin is held, the purchasing power will increase and the probability of buying at a discount will be greater than 50%. This will cause holders to sell Bitcoin for goods, increasing the amount of Bitcoin in circulation until it balances again. Speculation on the total economic output will inform price and provide a reliable signal for investment planning making investment more efficient.

Have you heard about capital efficiency?

Capital is the product (and means of production, which is a function of product) of the economy, not the thing that measures it.

So there this all leaves us regarding the #Bitcoin  future? My opinion:

1. Bitcoin as the most censorship-resistant tech will stay for sure - and is required for the economy. That’s why I distinguish BTC-as-money from Bitcoin-as-technology. Not “blockchain technology“, which doesn’t provides censorship resistance, but “bitcoin-based technology”!

2. This provides utility, i.e. we will face BTC-as-a-utility. It also has utility is a the first (thus the only) digital scarcity. So it will have a value - potentially growing value - and will remain volatile.

3. Thus, BTC will be used as a collateral to produce liquid credit - and the emergence of things like @fedimint proves that.

I.e. Bitcoin is a civilization-level of importance tech and BTC is a store of value (with its own risk profile), a digital scarcity and, if you will, a hard and sound “money” - but I doubt it will ever become a means of exchange and unit of accounting (thus I wonder whether term “money” is applicable to something which is not MoE and not UoA).