I view bitcoin as the greatest SoV asset on the planet. However, the market does not. Yet—at least.
The recent failure of SVB is the reason why we bitcoin. We store our wealth in an open-source network with no counterparty risk. We only lose our wealth if bitcoin fails (which the probability decreases daily)or if we lack personal responsibility over our keys.
We do not have to cry for regulators to intervene. Our funds are as secure as we want them to be. We do not have to rely on risk managers at a bank to protect our funds.
Bitcoin is built for this moment—when people are looking around for someone to blame because they stored deposits at a fractional reserve bank. Should banks lend out client deposits? In my opinion, no—unless the depositor gives consent. However, banks lend out deposits. That’s reality.
Why then is money flowing out of bitcoin instead of flowing in—if bitcoin really is the great SoV asset? Several reasons: the conflation of bitcoin with other crypto assets and crypto businesses, the volatility of bitcoin in dollar terms, the consensus that bitcoin is a speculative asset, etc.
The only rationale reason to sell bitcoin at a time like this is to avoid volatility in the short term. You could wait out the storm by storing funds at JPM, BAC, or Wells Fargo. You could buy 6-month T-bills that yield 4%. That’s a fine short-term play.
The question is what will you do in the medium to long term. We know this ends in a Fed pivot. The financial system needs liquidity. QE will return. The government cannot afford such high interest payments when factoring in other expenses.
When the Fed pivots, the dollar will be debased. Money supply will increase to provide liquidity to the system. Extra liquidity will find a home in risk assets.
We would be off to races again—if it wasn’t for a high CPI. That confuses things. However, the Fed may have to live with higher inflation if it means avoiding financial collapse.
How does one plays this then? You could go all in on bitcoin today. Some of you probably already are. I’m not. Why? I like cash on hand in the short term for optionality. Also, so I’m not a forced seller if something occurs in my life—get fired, health incident, etc. Could I miss the boat on buying more bitcoin if it 10x tomorrow? Sure. I could also capitalize if it gets cut in half in the coming months.
I take my bitcoin allocation seriously. If my expectations of bitcoin come to pass, my investments today will set up my future kids and their kids. If I’m forced to sell or fuck this up, I have missed a great opportunity.
The market will come around to bitcoin. The dollar will continue to lose credibility while bitcoin’s credibility will continue to rise. Most older asset managers will retire, and new ones with less fear of technology will replace them. The stability of the bitcoin network will be more desirable than the unpredictability of the modern financial system.
Bitcoin is made for this.
