The “illiquid supply,” which is coins that are in cold storage and unlikely to be sold near current prices, is growing.

It’s approaching 70% of BTC supply is in long term hold wallets, held likely by long term investors.

ETFs now introduce another factor for probably $30 - $60 billion worth of BTC to be soaked up by HNWs and Institutions to long hold BTC.

That’s another ~10% of the Bitcoin supply off the market, in long term hold by ETFs.

So now fast forward a year, we’ve got only 20% of the supply of Bitcoin in hit wallets and exchange wallets.

We now get into a situation where volatility to the upside is much more likely as the available float is lower and lower.

As the OTC brokers run out of OGs to offer a premium to, they have to buy on the exchanges.

BTC Miners after the halving are going to be less relevant in the OTC conversation because their supply to sell to OTC desks is going down by half…but not only that, the financialization of Bitcoin miners means a lot of the miners have already entered into contracts with power companies and others … a lot of their mined BTC is already sold.

Covered Call ETFs are launching which will be buying shares in GBTC, IBIT, FBTC etc (not buying BTC) to do options strategies with to earn income & pay dividends.

Am I correct in thinkng that Wall St will be trying to dampen volatility with these Covered Call ETFs, but that it also creates a condition where a sudden rush of demand for Bitcoin (whether through the Bitcoin ETFs or through exchanges buying real Bitcoin) could create a massive God Candle situation as the supply becomes more illiquid.

Lets say in a year, when all of these ETFs and Covered Call ETFs have soaked up 10% of the BTC supply, and Bitcoin Maximalists are not selling their Bitcoin, they’re locking away as much as they can in cold storage.

Now we have the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund looking to put 5% allocated towards Bitcoin.

That’s $50 billion in BTC they need to acquire.

Now lets say corporations start to realize that cash is a melting ice berg and they start to follow Microstrategy & SpaceX/Tesla in that they start to allocate 5% of their treasury to BTC.

Now let’s say every Billionaire in the world wants just 1% of their net worth in Bitcoin.

There’s 2600 Billionaires globally controlling $10 Trillion.

There’s another $100 billion of demand for BTC.

So now you have a “liquid supply” of Bitcoin of around 4 Million BTC with an ever-increasing demand by the wealthiest 0.1% as owning enough Bitcoin becomes a Veblen good, highly sought after by the world’s wealthiest.

With a large percent of Bitcoin inside of these Covered Call ETFs, they could miss significant upside of an Omega Candle driven by 0.1% FOMO.

This isn’t even factoring in retail demand, and the bottom 50% scrambling for the lifeboats as their currencies depreciate.

Caveat this with the reality that the “illiquid supply” will decrease significantly at a certain price point.

If BTC shot to $250k too quickly, 1-2 million BTC would probably enter the market as “liquid supply” and dampen the rise.