It's future expectations of Federal Reserve action

The Fed should only cut gradually after killing inflation or suddenly in a financial panic

This enormous shift is basically GFC baby one more time

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

So the market is predicting lower rates. This is people/businesses buying up short term bonds?

These are futures, basically market expectations of what the Federal Reserve will charge for short-term borrowing

But also some folks are buying short term bonds (presumably as a safe haven, better to have Uncle Sam owe you directly than support you via informal guarantees in FDIC)

Thanks for helping me understand 🤙