It will fail. Blackrock will undermine their own “Network” credibility with the fork. All the Bitcoiner’s will dump it. The unconvicted tradfi losers will be trapped in a weak and fake NGD chain that they can’t even transact on. It will all highlight the resilience and importance of Bitcoin and its core properties.
I think Blackrock will have analysts tell them these obvious realities before they actually try it. It’s very obvious what will happen.