Not working today, so I did some options math on $iBIT. Either I totally screwed this up, or it is just a terrible deal.

The farthest dated, highest target Call options I could find were January ‘27 at $100.

$100 iBIT implies a Bitcoin price of $175k.

These calls cost $16.30, so $1,630 for a 100 share contract.

To break even, you thus need Bitcoin price of $204k in January 2027.

Break even means Bitcoin more than doubles from here, but you have no gains.

If Bitcoin hits $306k, then you would 3.5x your money. Big move from $98k, but decent payoff.

However, just buying and hodling from $98k to $306k gets you 3.12x your money - without the risk of losing all your invested capital should you not hit the break even price.

The risk/reward makes no sense. These guys are pricing in a ton of volatility.

For you to get a meaningful delta between hodl returns and option returns, you really have to be assuming a Bitcoin price of >$400k. This would get you 7x on your options vs. 4x on your hodl.

Greedy pigs get slaughtered. I’ll take the 4x. Stay humble, stack sats. nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx