Replying to Avatar ᴛʜᴇ ᴅᴇᴀᴛʜ ᴏꜰ ᴍʟᴇᴋᴜ

and yeah, the reason for the deceleration is described in the 4th segment of that chart... it's because bitcoiners have been investing in rolling out the infrastructure to enable the adoption to take place, we are in the late half of that part of the cycle for sure... and not only that, it looks like the 4 year cycle may even be the exact match for the adoption phases in this case, partly because of the 10x each time
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ᴛʜᴇ ᴅᴇᴀᴛʜ ᴏꜰ ᴍʟᴇᴋᴜ 1y ago

i would bet that if you look at a chart showing the estimate of number of active wallets over the life cycle of bitcoin we are coming to an acceleration point just like the sigma curve

this is when the payoff really kicks in for the early adopters... this is when the tableflip starts

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ᴛʜᴇ ᴅᴇᴀᴛʜ ᴏꜰ ᴍʟᴇᴋᴜ 1y ago

it also may require taking into account the disappearance of on chain transaction into lightning, which means you probably need to composit the on-chain wallet estimation with the growth of the number of lightning nodes and UTXOs creating channels

and the advances in that tech are also concealing this userbase acceleration a bit as well i think, it may not even look much like acceleration on the basis of on-chain wallets, because of the necessity to shift more and more offchain