Why do you think we've had the recent pull back? I'm sure there must have been intervention but nothing I've seen reported yet. Just silly articles in the Nikkei claiming inbound tourists are contributing to JPY strengthening 🙄
Discussion
Pull back in USDJPY?
I don't think there was Gov/BOJ intervention, at least not at a significant scale.
And yes tourists buying yen is silly; it won't make a dent because it is so insignificant.
I don't have a contrarian view on recent pull back of USDJPY in the past week;
I think it is mainly due to:
1. Expected cool down in CPI (US) leading to expectation of Fed not going that much further with hikes
2. Weaker than expected NFP confirming view 1
3. USDJPY was getting extended to the upside leading up to the week so biased for profit taking
4. Then we had the lower than expected CPI
And most of all
5. There is increasing view that the BOJ might make a change (even slightly) in their monetary policy in this months BOJ meeting.
Emphasis on 5 at this point, so I don't expect a strong USDJPY recovery until the Fed and BOJ meeting towards the end of the month.
My contrarian view is with 5.
I think the BOJ will not change their monetary policy.