You are correct. 1 in 4 relays does not mean 25% of traffic if the 1 relay only has 10 people writing to it and the other 3 has 1,500. It is only 25% of my "potential" intake.

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It would also matter how many people were shared between the relays. The influence of that will go down as relay content specializes in the future.

Indeed.

If I follow a total of 100 people and only 10 of those have write permissions to the AmConf relay then 2 things are true:

1.) I'm already getting notes from those 10 people regardless of whether or not I am subscribed to AmConf relay

2.) You most likely figured out why my theory doesn't hold much water. At least in the Local feed view. Global, I think, would be changed.

What if we had Local, Global, and Federated (Subscription) feeds?