nostr:nprofile1qqspfdl3hkjwvnunzds5tcnz98zqdlgmvrc0q9vwwj3k7sxplawhzugpzdmhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2urpvuhx2ue0thw8gp All the rumors about Golden Ruble, Golden Juan, Golden whatever... are a result of the need of BRICS countries to clear transactions between each other. They don't trust each other enough to use their own currency (there is no guarantee one of them will not print more than what was agreed). I believe they will sooner or later start clearing in Bitcoin. Once this happens there will be an enormous fight against Bitcoin. It can be done virtually in the cyberspace, but it can easily spill into a real conflict with real victims... If Bitcoin survives that then it will win.
But will it bring peace? I don't think so. Same guns don't shoot people, currencies don't start wars.
BTC is not going to be used, IMO. It's better for those that want to grow their control to use their own CBDC for that purpose.
BTC would require that they acquire BTC. That is very expensive to do and will only get more expensive as their own currencies get weaker.
They already have all the USDs they use currently so acquiring BTC wouldn't be a huge problem. And the potential of it growing in value is a benefit not a threat.
CBDC can be controlled from the minting perspective, but is essentially valueless if nobody outside of the circle would pay a dime for it.
Remember this is not individuals beings forced to use whatever the government shoves down their throats. It is countries clearing transactions between each other and they know the tricks, they run the central banks.
International accounts clearing is the best case for CBDCs. Plus, it doesn't cost much of anything since the system can run on their current hardware. BTC isn't something they can control easily, which may seal the deal for CBDCs.
What will be the value behind CBDC issued by one or all of the states in the circle? One tanker full of oil is 2000 – 2500 BTC. How do you get to equivalent of that in CBDC? Remember we are talking about countries, they need something with universal value. They need to be able to convert the clearing tender into something tangible. Otherwise they are giving each other fortunes worth of products/materials for monopoly money.
The CBDC doesn't matter, initially. I suspect that there will be an agreed on exchange rate prior to full implementation, much like fixed exchange rates during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, though, those were based on the gold backing each of the currencies at the time. Fiat being fiated for fiat purposes is the easiest way to implement the CBDC.
Those in BRICs are intentionally moving away from anything previously used to denominate trade. Again, IMO.
It's not going to be used until they realize that bitcoin is what they both want.
Even the fierce enemies are going to trade in some way. They don't trust $ (reasonable) but they don't trust each others currencies even more. They are going back to gold because the trust issues.
The nature of the local currency doesn't matter that much. Even though I'd be more sceptical about CBDC which can be printed even more easily then now.
In this case, if BRICs implements a CBDC, it's not going to matter what it is denominated in, since it's going to just be for clearing payments, as a running ledger. The rest of the nefarious stuff will be implemented later after the transactions at the international level have been proven out.
IMO.
Who's going to run the ledger? You need a trustless ledger. And you're back to either commodity backed currency (where you allow to audit the holdings) or bitcoin 🤷🏻♂️
Not only allow the audit, but also having the trust that you will receive said commodity if it comes to it.
It is much better for them when the value is stored within.
Better in general, but not so much for ledgers of physical goods being traded.
I don't expect and large states to run a trust less ledger that would give up a vector of control, and I don't see that as a desired feature of the system from their perspective.
They ARE running trade surpluses. They can afford BTC. But most of their governments don't want to. They understand it threatens them.
I expect a mix of their own fiat, gold and various commodities.
Yeah. "anything but $ and BTC."
Why not BTC? It is like gold, but you don't have to haul pallets of gold back and forth with logistics and security risks.
Remember they don't trust each other, right now, they rather use USD with all the negative aspects over their own currencies.
I'm definitely not saying they will promote use of Bitcoin by their own people. Quite the opposite.
BTW wasn't this already the model during the cold war? Eastern Block would be doing international trade in Dollars, but their own people would be banned from owning any foreign currency.
Because BTC is beyond their direct control. The countries in BRICs are all control freaks. If they can't control something, it's not going to work, politically.
I would love for them to use BTC, but, it may lead to the situation that you noted. That would be quite a blow to the world, IMO.
I suspect that it's not just about being control freaks. They won't use bitcoin because they already plan how to rug pull each other :)
And it's just not possible with Bitcoin.
That's why the whole thing is probably just about leaving dollar standard.
So you're probably right that they won't run bitcoin standard.
My reasoning was based on an asumption that they actually want to cooperate in an honest way. But we all know that it's not what states do.
