I have 2 btc on Coinbase and send them to 2 separate addresses. How on earth can they know they are both mine without asking Coinbase? Seems fishy.

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Yeah it’s just BS guessing.

They will be “authoritative” with their calculations until someone calls them out on it then it will all be “an educated guess”.

I don’t even have the totals in one xpub. All from multiple sources.

…maybe they do have monthly chats with the exchanges!

I do not have and never would ever have 1₿ in one address or as 1 UTXO. Rich or poor, it's just so unlikely you would. Especially a pleb. Especially post 2017 when buying whole coins is not an option for 99% of people.

So... What they do is put together a made up methodology to estimate, then charge for the guess work with a straight face.