Even if 1 billion people only topped up once per week that would be 140m on chain transactions per day.

If they topped up once per year that would be 3m on chain transactions per day. They would only be able to top up once every 10 years, which is basically never.

Am I missing something?

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I’ve never thought that deeply about lightning. I’m sure the smart people here have and there is a simple explanation.

FWIW, the reason I left bitcoin alone after trying to play with it in 2013 was that it wanted to be money but it lacked the essential speed, volume, and low cost that money needs to have.

I bought in last October because by the time I was sure LN had solved that, I also thought BTC was way overpriced and so sat out the madness.

I’ve been buying Bitcoin since 2013. But was never interested in lightning until Nostr.