Replying to Avatar StackSats.IO

DANGERS OF THE BITCOIN STRATEGIC RESERVE

Everyone thinks about the price appreciation that nation state stacking brings on, but I’ve seen ZERO discussion of the potential downsides. So allow me be the one to shit in everyone’s cornflakes..

If the US does announce a SBR, Bitcoiners, you know the people who actually give this network value, are going to become targets.

We know:

- other countries will be forced to follow lest they be left behind

- they can’t print BTC

- they can’t tax BTC to accumulate it

- they have required KYC on exchanges in many countries

So what are those other nation states going to do when they realise they have to get their own stack?

They can’t print it. They can’t tax it. They’ve got a few regulated entities with lists of customers who have accumulated it..

Well they’re going to go knock on the exchange’s doors and demand lists of their customers who hold #Bitcoin.

Then they’re going to use the legal system, which they control, to coerce the HODLers to cough up their stacks to the government.

Expect to see: audits from the tax man. Unrealised gains taxes specifically on BTC. New legislation requiring corn addresses be declared or possibly joint custodied with Gov.

When that fails (which won’t take long, months probably); fuckery with HODLers business interests, debanking, travel bans, additional audits, outright bans/caps on individual ownership. M5M will portray greedy Bitcoiners as worse than Satan. Leftists will protest in the streets against them. Running a node will be prohibited by ISPs. There will be hotlines to report Bitcoiners to the Gov for some fiat rewards.

When they don’t get near their stacking target (they’ll all have delusions of grandeur of how they’re going to get some ridiculous % of the network assuming high rates of extraction from Bitcoiners on those lists + some open market ops) they’ll just go full Totalitarian.

Invented crimes with convictions only avoidable if HODLers cough up. Extending the lawfare targeting to family who fucking ignored you and have no corn but are now debanked and having their business destroyed, etc.

Within 1-2 years it will become impossible to hold BTC in nations like Aus, Canada, UK, and across Europe.

Boating accidents won’t cut it in front of judges and your pleas that they’ve shown the man and found the crime will fall on deaf ears - this is existential for the parasites, they’re not going to follow “the rules”.

Yanks will think they’re ok because they won’t face these pressures and their Gov were the “smart ones” who went first.

NO YOU DUMB FUCKS

Bitcoin is valuable because of decentralisation; you’re about to lose that when nation states make it impossible for individuals in large parts of the world to be part of the network lest they be destroyed.

This is the single biggest threat Bitcoin faces and all I see is supposed Bitcoiners cheering it on like the Goldbugs who love it when CBs pump their bags.

Bitcoin managed to cope with El Salvador adopting it. It won’t with the US - the knock ons are going to be immense.

This is not some Whitney Webb skizzopost by someone who doesn’t really understand Bitcoin. This is something I’ve understood for a while and which has fallen on deaf ears whenever I’ve raised it because ppl prefer to think of the bag pumping.

Yeah you’re going to be rich. Bitcoin is going to fork for regulation. You will have lost your allies who would have stopped it but can’t participate because you took the shortcut and they got removed to avoid jail.

If you want to avoid this, then it’s time to start seeing the State as your adversary again. Not your State, all of them. They’re all a problem.

Nation state game theory for Bitcoin, now, is bad for Bitcoiners.

Some potential counterarguments:

* Overestimation of government power:

While governments can exert significant pressure, seizing Bitcoin from millions of individuals globally might be practically impossible.

* The Streisand Effect:

Heavy-handed attempts to confiscate Bitcoin could backfire, driving further adoption and strengthening the network.

* Technological solutions:

Privacy-enhancing technologies (e.g., mixing services, CoinJoin) could make it harder for governments to track and seize Bitcoin.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Thanks Herr GPT.

1. Individual governments need not care about HODLers outside their jurisdiction. They will laser focus on their tax slaves and extract from them. That’s what they know, and what they do best.

2. Streisand effect just announces what’s happening. It doesn’t stop tax agents and police from showing up on the doorstep of holders identified through KYC exchanges.

3. Yes, but no. As I wrote, boating accidents won’t be accepted in courts of law when it’s existential to the State. They’ll make HODLers account for very Sat from KYCed exchanges and likely ban travel outside their borders if they think someone is hiding their holdings. You can hide behind mixed coins and not give them up but you can never leave.

Leaving before it's too late is the last resort. But with perhaps only 3-5 years left for Europe, the time to act may be sooner than we think. Let's hope more Bitcoin-friendly havens emerge before then.