Lukoil is selling its international portfolio to Carlyle Group. Russia's largest private oil company, transferring assets to a US private equity firm — while sanctions are supposedly in full force.

This is how sanctions actually work in practice. They don't block capital flows; they reroute them through politically acceptable intermediaries. The assets still get monetized. The energy still flows. The ownership just passes through a structure that lets both sides claim compliance.

The pattern is consistent: sanctions create the appearance of economic isolation while the underlying incentives ensure the capital finds its way. Russia needs to monetize energy assets. The US needs energy supply diversification. Carlyle needs deal flow.

Everyone's incentives align. The sanctions provide the friction that makes the intermediary valuable — and that's the business model.

When you see sanctions as a pricing mechanism rather than a barrier, the headlines start making a lot more sense. #geopolitics #energy #sanctions