Replying to Avatar Snapolino

dont get me wrong... i never said everyone has to be 100% in bitcoin. You can do what ever the fuck you want :-) i just pointed out a return formula that takes risk into consideration and i extensively calculated those risks. No asset/commodity/currency comes even close. Hope you will do once the math.
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Joda 2y ago

I guess I don't know how to do that math?

Like, for me, Bitcoin has an unknown future value. I'm one of very few people who think its USD price could actually just stabilize near where it is, like $30k +/- $5k, for a decade. Of course, it could go to a million, or $5k (or in some extreme case, zero, maybe). I just don't have a good formula to determine that.

Likewise I can't calculate the risk particularly well. I can calculate the risk of losing some percentage of my retirement account, which is how I determine the maximum I could invest in something. And I can catastrophize/fantasize a future world where Bitcoin is the most precious asset --and from that I can calculate a minimum investment.

I haven't studied finance. Are you using a risk formula of some kind?

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Snapolino 2y ago

I am outside of the US... so i absolutely do not give a freaking f about the usd price :-) What i currently see happening is americans are over confident in the USD, Government, Bonds, Treasury bills.

In case you would have to leave your country with all your wealth, do you think its a good time to sell when everyone else also wants to exit or is it better to exit before?

In case of a default... what do you think your bonds , treasury's are worth?

In case the USD devalues 99% over night becasue , lets say they remove a decimal from all accounts.... because otherwise they default?

In case a war breaks out between US - China, what do you think the USD will do? it would decay to powder because it requires a lot of printing to keep the military happy.

Thoses are just a few informations.... (I am not a US citizen, i was original from Europe and moved to Asia) . Just from what i see and hear i believe more in Bitcoin and Gold.... for example i hold 96% Bitcoin, 2% Gold, 2% the currency paper where i currently reside. 2% of my networth is more than enough to survive for more than 2 years no matter what happens.

If you realy so trust the government and dont like bitcoin enough, then just take some out and put it in gold just to protect your purchasing power. Everything hard (Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Assets, is better than fiat in the bank).

But i would never tell you what you have to do, i might have a alu hat or being a conspiracy theorist... but i think protection and evaluation of possible risks is much more important than ever before... Please do whats good for you considering the possible risks.