The spread between 3M and 2Y only inverts when the Fed reaches the terminal rate...
Probabilities of no rate #hike is 52% and a 25bps hike is 48%. The next #FOMC meeting is in 33 days on the 3rd of May.
https://cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Discussion
(h/t Joe Consorti)
So wait for FED rate pause before getting bearish?
Fed raises rates -> Buy Bitcoin
Fed lowers rates -> Buy Bitcoin
Fed pauses -> Buy Bitcoin
Fed pivots -> Buy Bitcoin
Fed put -> Buy Bitcoin
Moscow time goes up -> Buy Bitcoin
Moscow time goes down -> Buy Bitcoin
Trump goes to jail -> Buy Bitcoin
Biden forgets his name -> Buy Bitcoin
Pelosi makes a trade -> Buy Bitcoin
Buy Bitcoin
We found that easing/non-tightening conditions are best for Bitcoin. It just indicates that the Fed is more likely to pause than to hike which is good for Bitcoin ;)
Historically Fed Pausing has led to recessions. And BTC and NDQ are still highly correlated.
😉
In this long perspective, yes. The short term correlation is coming down , esp. in the last banking crisis fog.
