Just listened to nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z ‘s BTC144 with you and the guys. Was reminded by the “🦀”.

It seems the price of bitcoin is hard to predict because it is a global asset. Lower liquidity in the US might be offset by China, Europe or Japan. Hard to predict what the net flows will be. Stay humble, stack sats.

My personal guess is that the US stock market climbs this wall of worry until early 2024. The size of the correction depending on what Treasury can do on their own with the Fed and Congress watching and not meaningfully assisting.

Congress unlikely to ride quickly to Biden’s rescue in an election year. The Fed seems to be on a mission to show the politicians (Treasury) that the big bankers are in charge. So no meaningful bailouts until late 2024 or 2025.

2024 will be painful for most people. Accelerating bankruptcies, layoffs, regional bank failures, etc.

2025 brings the big bailout and then after 2027 we watch CPI explode higher driven by a combination of massive liquidity and declining supply (from all the corporate bankruptcies). This is when we finally get YCC and the fourth turning gets more “exciting”.