My aunt asked me what I thought was going to happen this U.S. presidential election. Here’s what I told her:

1. Irrespective of who’s declared winner, about 30% of Americans will think it was rigged.

2. If Trump is declared winner, there’ll be protests and rioting from blue team. We saw a preview in 2020. A few downtowns will be ransacked. Store windows broken, looting. However, it won’t last long, and won’t bleed over into the suburbs. The suburbs are a jungle, and guns would come out of everywhere to stop the rioters from progressing.

3. If Kamala is declared winner, there’ll be peaceful protests, perhaps like the farmers in Europe, or the truckers in Canada. A few will be arrested, the rest quietly dispersed. Red team equates patriotism with support of the State (police, military), and so will not put up much of a fight when asked to return home.

4. In either case, two years later, the houses of Congress will flip hard the other way. Nothing much will change, legislatively. The swamp will remain undrained. Alive and well.