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"I very much doubt we're going to discover secret Zelensky plan for genocide"

Given that people widely consider attacks on electricity grids to be potentially attempts at genocide – myself included – I can guarantee you that there is in fact a Zelensky plan for "genocide". Ukraine has been notably reluctant to do real damage to Russia's electricity grid even where they can, and that's very likely to be due to western pressure (unlikely to be by agreement with Russia, as Russia has no issue destroying Ukrainian infrastructure).

If that pressure changes, we'll likely find out that Zelensky had a plan for "genocide" all along as Russian cities are plunged into darkness.

I won't be surprised if that happens in the next two months: Trump is precisely the type of politician that _might_ reverse Biden's opposition to winning.

Sjors Provoost 1y ago

Afaik deliberately taking out civilian electricity grids is a war crime*. But although it can be part of a genocide, it isn't by itself.

Trump is a wildcard, can go both ways:

1. He just gives Ukraine to Russia

2. He'll indeed approve more aggresive action, especially ones that don't cost US tax payer money

Best we can hope for is probably (2) combined with the EU footing the entire weapons bill, because he does like exporting stuff.

* = and again, wouldn't tip the balance for anyone keeping score

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Discussion

Peter Todd 1y ago

The Gulf War opened with Iraq's civilian electricity grid being deliberately taken out. 28(!!!) power plants were taken out by 218 sorties, along with transformers and switching yards. This also took out most of their water supply and sewage filtration. The country was left without power for years.

I'm fine with that. Coalition forces didn't need to risk their lives making the fight more fair.

Just two days ago, Israel plunged much of Yemen into darkness, destroying two civilian power plants.

Again, I'm ok with that. Yemen is a valid target and there's no easy way for Israel to defeat the Houthies and stop their attacks on Israel. Crushing the economy is a decent option.

...and again, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, power plants and even water treatment plants were targeted. US forces also blew up civilian power plants, including hydroelectric dams, in North Vietnam.

It's absolutely bizarre that you don't think taking out Russia's electricity grid wouldn't "tip the balance". Every drone and missile Russia launches at Ukraine is paid for by the Russian economy. Collapse the economy, and the funding for those drones and missiles dries up.

The Russian economy runs on electricity, like any other economy. Taking out power will certainly cut economic activity.

Russia isn't spending billions taking out Ukraine's power grid just for fun....

Peter Todd 1y ago

...and yet another (indirect) example of a civilian power grid being intentionally taken down: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/21/world/middleeast/iran-economy-energy-crisis.html

Israel has effectively taken down much of Iran's power grid by blowing up natural gas pipelines which, among other things, fed gas turbine generators.

This is fine by me. Iran is in an aggressive war with Israel, and plenty of other countries. Crushing their economy is fair game, and probably the most effective thing Israel can do to win.