Really enjoyed this! Question for nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l though: in terms of the 8% retirement drawdown: what about sequence of returns risk? Bitcoin is very volatile and you'd be a forced seller during bear markets, and then have a lot less Bitcoin to recover during the bull....... 🤔
Discussion
You're thinking in dollar terms.
The 8% Rule is in bitcoin terms. So, while the dollar amount will be volatile from year to year, you will know exactly how many sats you are selling to support your lifestyle.
Also, though volatile in fiat terms, the amount of purchasing power will generally increase (materially) over the years.
Sorry, just saw you had replied (I am mainly on X). BTW - saw an interview recently where you recommended tithing 10% to the local church, and then saving 30%, and living on 60% - I think that is wonderful advice!
About the 8% rule, I still don't really understand: in Bitcoin terms 100/8 would then only last 12 years? Or would you take 8% out every year, so after year 1 you're left with 92% of original amount, but then you take 8% of what's left, etc?
Additionally - if Bitcoin goes through 40, 60, or 80% drawdowns, how would you survive in those years....? Or would you draw 8% of your BTC stack each year, convert to fiat, and then only live on a part of that and keep the rest in fiat to "smooth out" the amount and have a steady income year by year? Trying to wrap my head around it.
Here is a fun calculator to play with when thinking about yearly % drawdown.
I also like this calculator.
Thanks for sharing it!
Dr Ross, missed seeing you glad you're back great interview.
Curious on one thing, wish Stephan would have asked you.... With currently no more than 1% global adoption.... and as adoption looks likely to explode how do you see there being diminishing returns in the next couple of decades??