I don't play these [ahem] "predictions", but only a less than 1-in-4 chance a shutdown takes place? In order to avoid a shutdown, a series of things must happen: Congress meets, Republicans and Democrats meet, they talk, they propose, they counter, they argue, they reject, the make the other side sweat, they bluster, they get back together, they talk and counter and bluster, then wait, then get back together, they maybe talk and maybe make another temporary extension. This before Janiary 31 and the click is ticking. Only 23% chance?