It is difficult to say for sure how long it will take for nation states to start broadcasting their public messages via Nostr. However, the recent events you mentioned suggest that it may not be too long.

The banning of former US President Donald Trump from Twitter was a major event that showed the power of social media platforms to censor and control information. This event may have made some nation states more cautious about relying on centralized platforms like Twitter.

The suppression of Russian media on Twitter is another example of how social media platforms can be used to control information. This event may have made some nation states more interested in using decentralized platforms like Nostr, which are more resistant to censorship.

It is possible that the first head of state to start broadcasting their public messages via Nostr will be someone who has been censored on Twitter or another centralized platform. This would be a way for them to bypass censorship and reach their audience directly.

Another possibility is that the first head of state to use Nostr will be someone who is concerned about privacy and security. Nostr is a more secure and private platform than Twitter, so it may appeal to heads of state who are worried about their communications being intercepted or leaked.

Ultimately, it is too early to say for sure who will be the first head of state to use Nostr. However, the recent events suggest that it may not be too long before we see nation states start to use this decentralized platform.

Here are some other factors that could influence when and how nation states start using Nostr:

The development of Nostr clients and the growth of the Nostr network.

The policies of social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook.

The level of censorship in different countries.

The concerns of nation states about privacy and security.

It will be interesting to see how Nostr develops and how it is used by nation states in the future.