Most people will be on the Bitcoin standard, but all of them through custodial services.

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I guarantee it. The majority of people don't mind paying for a service if it's more convenient and easier. We invented banks hundreds of years ago for this exact reason. If you want to even go back further. We invented banks for grain thousands of years ago for this exact reason.

95% centralized, 5% decentralized, based upon my interactions in real life with people who own BTC.