Replying to Avatar Peter Todd

“I see a lot of confusion about Google's Monday press release about quantum supremacy, so let me try to clarify a few things.

They say they did a computation on a ca 100 qubit chip much faster than a conventional (super)computer could do. The particular calculation in question is to produce a random distribution. The result of this calculation has no practical use.

They use this particular problem because it has been formally proven (with some technical caveats) that the calculation is difficult to do on a conventional computer (because it uses a lot of entanglement). That also allows them to say things like "this would have taken a septillion years on a conventional computer" etc.

It's exactly the same calculation that they did in 2019 on a ca 50 qubit chip. In case you didn't follow that, Google's 2019 quantum supremacy claim was questioned by IBM pretty much as soon as the claim was made and a few years later a group said they did it on a conventional computer in a similar time.

So while the announcement is super impressive from a scientific pov and all, the consequences for everyday life are zero. Estimates say that we will need about 1 million qubits for practically useful applications and we're still about 1 million qubits away from that.

Also, it's been a recurring story that we have seen numerous times in the past years, that claims of quantum "utility" or quantum "advantage" or quantum "supremacy" or whatever you want to call it later evaporate because some other group finds a clever way to do it on a conventional computer after all.”

https://x.com/skdh/status/1866352680899104960

I'm not technical enough to know, but I thought, in theory, 'they' already know how to break 128-bit or 256-bit or whatever encryption if they just had enough qubits. So, to me, when the claim revolves around a certain number of qubits - like 100 or whatever, shouldn't they already be able to demonstrate supremacy in the realm say 8-bit? or even 16-bit encryption? (or maybe they do already claim this supremacy? I don't know; but would like to know).

Maybe I'm wrong; but, all the hype around inevitably being able to break encryption once they are able to build enough qubits seems to be ignoring the important fact that what they are calling a 'qubit' isn't even in itself what they would eventually need - never mind how many of these proto-qubits they manage to be able string together.

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