【大饼什么时候卖】 搬迁自微博账户@囤饼达

今天聊到了大饼什么时候卖的话题。

有人说等大饼到了多少多少价位就可以全卖了。

其实这还是错误的停留在了法币本位思维。

首先要确定的是:囤饼至少要经历一轮牛熊,从囤饼开始四年内是绝对不可以卖的,否则就会重蹈48万哥的悲惨覆辙。

饼本位观念中,法币是持有就会不断贬值的badmoney,而饼这种 goodmoney是没有理由去换badmoney的。在任何以法币兑换汇率的“价位时间点”去清仓大饼都是没有必要的。

那什么时候可以卖饼呢?当你有必须的消费需求(囤饼人时间偏好低,很少会有购买奢侈品之类的不必要消费),且法币现金流已经无法覆盖时,才是卖出饼的唯一理由。

比如你现在有个必须的消费需求,还需要100万法币的现金流缺口。此时你可以卖出市值100万法币的饼,来支持你这笔必须的消费。

看出来了吗?将大饼这种goodmoney兑换成购买力会不断降低的badmoney的唯一用途就是:立刻将badmoney消费出去。

除非消费需求完全覆盖了你所有大饼的市值,否则你永远无需清仓大饼,哪有把goodmoney换成的badmoney这种傻事。

有人会这么做,只是因为他们观(zhen)念(ta)不(ma)同(sha)罢了。

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Discussion

【When will Bitcoin be sold】

Today we talked about the topic of when Bitcoin will be sold.

Some people say that you can sell all bitcoins when they reach a certain price.

In fact, this is still a mistake to stay in the legal currency standard thinking.

The first thing to be sure is: hodler must go through at least one round of bulls and bears, and they must not be sold within four years of hodl, otherwise they will repeat the tragic mistakes of Brother 480,000.

In the Bitcoin concept, fiat currency is an "bad money" that will continue to depreciate when held, and there is no reason for a "good money" such as Bitcoin to exchange for "bad money". There is no need to liquidate bitcoin at any "price point" at the fiat-to-fiat exchange rate.

When can I sell Bitcoin? The only reason to sell bitcoin is when you have necessary consumption needs (hodler has a low time preference, and there are very few unnecessary consumptions such as buying luxury goods), and the cash flow of legal currency can no longer be covered.

For example, you have a necessary consumption demand now, and you still need a cash flow gap of 1 million French currency. At this time, you can sell Bitcoin with a market value of 1 million French currency to support your necessary consumption.

Did you see it? The only use for exchanging Bitcoin, a "good money", for a bad money with ever-decreasing purchasing power is to spend the bad money immediately.

Unless consumer demand completely covers the market value of all your bitcoins, you will never need to liquidate your bitcoins. There is no such thing as a stupid exchange of good money for bad money.

Some people do it because they think differently (stupidly).