I still think prediction markets are totally fkn stupid. People don’t really want accuracy… they want to feel heard & validated.
The act of making predictions can alter the predictions themselves.
In other words, the very act of making a prediction can change the outcome it predicts.
I think that's exactly the point. Same way vote intention polls affect the election results. But in prediction markets being wrong has a cost, and being right a reward.
Furthermore, there are outcomes that can be economically relevant and not changeable. For example if there's a hurricane tomorrow in x location. One might want to hedge against that. Others might want to improve their estimations for profit.
Not everything is black or white, I think prediction markets can create value. Same as insurance companies.
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