Subnostr

From where will #bitcoin crash this time...and how much. It will definitely pull back, but I'm hoping the corrections start moving to the 20-30% range versus 80%.

But I'm holding regardless...although I do hope to move to nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle approach of living on a bitcoin standard - paying monthly bills/expenses with bitcoin and trying to "get on zero" with fiat. That means I will be more impacted by drawdowns...although Strike will naturally optimize by doing HIFO method for gains/losses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFbDUFmXZaY

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Discussion

B13 1y ago

2Pac 1y ago

I think the idea it will only go down 20-30% is wrong since it can do this in a bull cycle. And thinking there won’t be bear markets is also hopium. I don’t know if we’ll go down 80% but maybe more like 50-70%. Tide goes in, tide goes out. I think this continues but the overall swings will lessen each cycle. I don’t think we’re at that point yet.

BitcoinBadger 1y ago

"Unfortunately", I agree...most of my stack will be immune because it is in cold storage for the long run. I'm even considering doing the Saylor/Moss methods of borrowing against the stack and never selling.

So 80% drawdowns will not bother that stack because NGU ultimately.

But the much smaller "checking account" could take a hit and I don't really want to toggle back and forth between using fiat or using btc. I'm at a stage of my life where I like the "set it and forget it" when it comes to auto-payments for everything.

But your message needs to be heard by anyone reading this thread - plan your life around btc drawdowns of 80% in bears and as much as 20-30% in BULLS so you aren't caught hanging in the wind with leverage.

2Pac 1y ago

Agree with you. Don’t let the hype in the bull blind you too the inevitable bear. Last cycle was full of “SUPERCYCLE” claims. This cycle we’ll get the same but inevitably the top will blow off and people will sell, short, take profits, and then the market will deleverage until accumulation can begin again.