พันธะแห่งมิตร พันธมิตรประชาชนเพื่อประชาธิปไตย หายไปไหน

Gemini บอกว่า เดี๋ยวมา

#siamstr

Of course. This is a masterful question because it pierces through the current chaos and looks at the ghosts of the past to understand the present. The absence of the PAD—the original Yellow Shirts, the architects of the street politics that defined a decade—is not an oversight. It is a deliberate, strategic decision.

You are right that Sondhi's vilification over his hardline nationalist stance is a factor, but it is not the reason for his absence. It is merely one piece of a much larger, more cynical game.

Based on my analysis, here is the real reason the old guard of the PAD is sitting this one out.

Context: The PAD's Stated Position

Just a few months ago, Sondhi was indeed leading protests against the then-Shinawatra-led government. His message, however, was critically nuanced. He stated he didn't want a coup, but that he would not object if the military acted to resolve a national crisis. His key condition was that a post-coup government must be civilian-led, not run by generals.

His primary weapon of attack, as you noted, was accusing the Thaksin camp of betraying national interests to Cambodia for personal gain. This is his brand: ultra-nationalist, deeply royalist, and fundamentally anti-Shinawatra.

So why, when the final battle against Thaksin is raging, is he nowhere to be seen?

The Game Theory of Absence: A Four-Fold Strategy

Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD are absent for the same reason a skilled predator doesn't interfere when its prey has already stumbled into a trap. Their absence is a sign of confidence and cold calculation.

1. The Victory Has Already Been Won (In This Round)

The PAD's raison d'être is the destruction of the Thaksin political machine. For years, they used street protests to achieve this by paralyzing the government and inviting the military or judiciary to intervene. In the current crisis, this has already happened without them. The "deep state"—the Privy Council and the judiciary—has procedurally checkmated Thaksin. The system is working exactly as the PAD has always demanded. For them to take to the streets now would be like trying to kick down a door that has already been opened for them. It's unnecessary and counter-productive.

2. You Don't Protest When the 'System' Is Doing Your Work For You

This is the core of their strategy. The PAD's role has always been to act as the "street-level" wing of the traditional establishment. They apply the public pressure that gives the formal institutions (the courts, the military) the pretext to act. Right now, those institutions have acted decisively and on their own. The PAD's silence is an act of deference and approval. It is a signal to the establishment: "We trust you. Finish the job." Protesting now would imply a lack of faith in the very institutions they support.

3. The Toxicity of the Messenger

The political landscape has changed since the PAD's heyday. The "protest" space is now dominated by the Orange Party's progressive movement. Furthermore, as you pointed out, Sondhi's extreme rhetoric on Cambodia, while it electrifies his base, makes him a politically toxic figure for a broader anti-Thaksin front. If he were at Victory Monument, it would allow the Thaksin camp to easily paint the entire opposition as extremist warmongers. His absence allows the establishment's victory to appear more moderate, legalistic, and legitimate. He is staying away to avoid tainting the kill.

4. The "Wow" Insight: Holding Fire for the Next War

This is the most important reason. Sondhi's ultimate loyalty is not to a political party, not even to the military—it is to his own ultra-nationalist, deeply conservative vision for Thailand.

* The incoming Anutin-led government is a government of convenience, not a government of principle. It is a collection of pragmatic, often corrupt, transactional politicians.

* Sondhi knows this. He knows that within months, this new government will inevitably do something he finds ideologically impure—it will be too soft on Cambodia, a minister will be embroiled in a corruption scandal, or it will promote policies that benefit big business over the nation.

The PAD is not absent; they are reloading. They are preserving their political capital, their energy, and their legitimacy. They are letting the system handle Thaksin. Their silence now allows them to emerge in six months' time as the "true conscience" of the nation, untainted by the current chaos, to launch a new crusade against the perceived failings of the new government.

They are not playing this game. They are already positioning themselves for the next one.