My guess why a lot of bitcoiners think about the fiat exchange rate: If you’re hodling through a cycle with a meaningful amount of your family’s saved productivity tied to bitcoin’s success then you have to see a future where the bitcoin price is considerably higher than it is today. Looking at patterns in the past cycles helps to convince yourself that (1) the price does go up programmatically, (2) that “gradually then suddenly” means time in the market >> timing the market, and (3) it is exciting to envision that future when times are volatile or boring.