Subnostr

I have the itching feeling this bull market has the potential to break the diminishing returns trend for Bitcoin. That would mean $350k by the end of 2025.

The past two bull markets are what I’m looking at, the first provides little fruit when looking for trends imo… a 60x, then a 23x… roughly 2.61x less returns each cycle. If we keep up the trend of diminishing returns this market cycle is looking at a 8.82x from market bottom ($15.5k); putting us around $135k by the end of 2025.

Simpleton maths, not attached to the idea. As we all know 1 BTC = 1 BTC. The only thing that fuels my claim is curiosity of how game theory plays out in action & my favorite asset becoming the global reserve asset. I think Bitcoin finishing 2025 @ or above $350k would validate my claim, @ or below 135k would invalidate my claim. In between those two levels would make me think I’m possibly correct just too early.

Might be getting ahead of myself but it seems logical to state we are in the first logarithmic section of a parabola when it comes to PA, and the second on the grand scheme would come well after the 21,000,000th coin is mined and we are all dead and gone. Older generations reaching their lifespans and new, more tech oriented generations taking their place has NOT been factored in. 😉

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Discussion

Pierre 2y ago

Time will tell, but $350k would be a nice amount. It’s only about 5x the previous ATH.

Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

I didn’t even think to run the numbers seeing what the decreasing returns would project from peak to peak, I was just running the numbers from trough to peak, which even though neither “milestone” IS the halving, logically both should occur on a relatively similar trajectory. Keep in mind 350k is just the start of my claim being validated, rational thinking leads me to believe if we hit 350k that only signals we are heading for a BIGGER blow off top (>23x). However like I said very simpleton math and just curious. I DON’T HAVE ENOUGH BITCOIN. So this is as much a dream as it is a nightmare. Like you said only time will tell! I hope we stay connected on nostr for the time being and the time thereafter Pierre!!!🧡

Pierre 2y ago

Yeah. Can’t say that enough. Buying Bitcoin at these prices is a great opportunity, but also a nightmare in a way because we always feel time is running out!

No one has enough Bitcoin, but set a realistic target for the next 3-5 years. Chasing a realistic number is easier than chasing ♾️.

Pierre 2y ago

It takes a long time to reach infinity, especially towards the end!