https://x.com/simondixontwitt/status/2006723893961036022

🔴 2026 Predictions

✅ Bitcoin

Ignore the price.

Focus on owning more Bitcoin this month than you did last month.

If the price goes down, celebrate, you get to buy more Bitcoin with fiat.

If the price is up by the end of 2026, which I predict it will be, recognise what that likely means: the four-year cycle has been broken and the market has entered a new phase.

There will still only ever be 21 million Bitcoin, as long as we continue to self-custody it.

The financial–industrial complex will do everything it can to custody as much of that fixed supply as possible.

Your job is to resist their temptations to borrow against it, hold it in a treasury company or chase yield, only to be margin-called so they can capture your Bitcoin gains.

✅ Technology

AI changes everything.

Those who go deep and run their own local LLMs will be genuinely blown away by what’s possible.

Everyone else will be building, or living inside, centralised control grids that will radically change their lives in every way.

Your current job is unlikely to exist by the end of the decade.

The AI stock bubble will not pop.

They will bail it out if needed.

✅ Macro

The dollar weakens relative to foreign currencies, gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

At the same time, yields on the 10-year and 30-year are likely to end up above 4.5%-5% as the Fed lowers short term rates.

Despite this, equity markets continue to grind higher, and U.S. real estate generally trends upward.

By contrast, the UK is likely to experience a property market correction, accompanied by severe financial distress.

None of this will happen suddenly.

It will unfold slowly, and most people won’t notice how profoundly it reshapes the world until it’s already well underway.

✅ Geopolitics

The world becomes more multipolar.

The more regionally focused the U.S. becomes, the closer the Middle East moves toward stability, benefiting Asia, the Middle East, Africa and much of the Global South.

China has already won the trade war.

Nothing stops that train, and China will not go to war with the U.S. over Taiwan/Venezuela/Iran.

Paradoxically, the closer a country is aligned with the U.S., the more likely it is to experience civil unrest or be drawn into external conflict.

If there is another conflict with US/Israel/Iran it will be short lived and theatre like the last 12 day war.

The Russia–Ukraine war continues as the financial–industrial complex seeks to vassalise more of Europe.

I’ll continue to follow the money and share where I think we’re heading each week.

🎉 Happy New Year.

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01.01.26

#simondixon