I agree with all of this in principle, but I think it's going pretty far down the realm of plausible to suggest that CP and governments taking over nodes is the primary problem here.

I would call that very low probability, and somewhat high but not crazily high impact.

I prefer to focus on how these huge transactions clog the chain, makes node running more expensive, and makes Bitcoin costlier to use as it was intended.

Which is sort of to say that I'm not quite so black pilled as my friend Mr Mechanic. Even though I agree with him on almost everything and he's been absolutely right before. So there's that.