amazing and comprehensive article by nostr:npub1ej493cmun8y9h3082spg5uvt63jgtewneve526g7e2urca2afrxqm3ndrm.
The only thing that I would add is that the analysis of how many channel openings or splicing are possible in a year is not so relevant.
The biggest limit is distribution of wealth, which is likely to follow a power law, which means that ~80% won't be able to afford an UTXO.
nostr:note1num4zp4qefrxtehc6gn8e7p0n43pcaawmkd0cctslvjz58lcvdqs5euxr9