One of the most annoying (to me) aspects of contemporary Western politically-motivated data gathering is the false dichotomy between the private murder rate and the public murder rate.

Palestinian private citizens murder each other at much lower rates than African-Americans in Chicago, or even Albanians in Stockholm. That's the private murder rate. Sure.

The public murder rate is high. And what might be called the "external public murder rate" right now is the highest in the world.

I would suggest its the sum of the three that are an important moderating variable for birth rare prediction.