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Thanks for the thoughtful dialogue.

It makes it clear that the layers of nuance around the entire discussion are not typically fit for social media blurbs and media soundbites.

People can agree that human activity (specifically, the rapid addition of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere) is increasing global temperatures, and then still disagree about what to do with that information.

Draconian, top-down regulations are (as usual) more likely to hurt average people than to help solve a problem. And as bitcoiners, we all know that “follow the money” reliably sniffs out corruption — and few groups are better funded than the oil lobby (or have such an existential incentive to fight for their industry).

But pure business self-interest doesn’t always lead to efficient outcomes either. The oil lobby funded some of the anti-nuclear environmentalists, creating massive inefficiencies in energy markets and reducing the potential for human flourishing that continues to this day (see Germany).

I can hold this while also acknowledging the ESG funds are often complete bullshit, and many of the panic pieces in mainstream media are often little more than clickbait.

All of this is one reason I’m insanely bullish on Bitcoin. Stranded/renewable/sustainable energy sources are often cheap and perfect for miners, yet disregarded by public utilities because (until now) there’s been no efficient way to monetize that energy. See Africa/Gridless.

It’s yet another of Satoshi’s perfect consequences (whether intended or not). The pure self-interest of energy companies — renewable or otherwise — can and is being used to reduce atmospheric methane releases, support cheap renewable energy to power entire villages, and so much more. (Landfill mining!!!)

elsat 2y ago

🤝 discussion.

Yeh, I’m optimistic on the latter as well. Fiat capital misallocation will be greatly reduced.

In policy monologue, and corpo-speak the starting point is “climate crisis”, therefore action X, Y, Z.

To add a wrench to the “most people agree” statement on co2, if you look at the data over tens of millions of years - it is not clear that the trace gas co2 drives temperature change (see chart below).

The lack of understanding of the uncertainty and unknowns of the system, and the sketchy motives of control and fiat redistribution make me extremely skeptical of policy founded on no credible basis.

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boston wine 2y ago

Totally respect any skepticism of policy implementation. Especially when there’s wealth and power on the line — which there usually is.

I’m always a bit wary of charts like this, because there’s so much context excluded. Which of those periods would have been tolerable for human life, agriculture, etc.? Were there insane storms and fires or was it placid and chill? Also dinosaurs 😉

My general understanding is that measuring carbon over periods of millions of years tends to yield a much more vague picture, compared to what we can learn from carbon deposits (?) from recent centuries.

As I tend to be more likely to mistrust the incumbent powers-that-be, if I had to pick, I’d say it’s more likely that there’s more misinformation coming from oil/gas-producing countries, companies, lobbies, than from your garden-variety (pun intended) environmentalists.

But media is broken, money/incentives are broken, and sourcing reliable information is tough nowadays, (mostly) regardless of viewpoint.

At least there’s one thing we know of that continually churns out consensus-based truths every ten mins