Current state of the German parliamentary election. It is not yet clear, if BSW and FDP will break the 5% hurdle. AfD makes history, by doubling their previous election record.
Friedrich Merz, from the CDU, is set to build a coalition, probably with the SPD and a third party (FDP or Greens).
#Germany #Bundestagswahl
The running count can be followed here:
Do they get a seat at 5% or why is that important?
Yes, there is a 5% hurdle, to even get a single seat and enter the parliament. The alternative path, is to get 3 directly-elected candidates, but that's also a high hurdle.
exit pools are very interesting
Germany is clearly a conservative-leaning country. We now all wait to see, if they will receive a governing coalition whose agenda reflects this preference. It is very possible, that the SPD will shift-right, and recenter themselves around politicians like Boris Pistorius, to fit into a right-leaning governing coalition.
FDP would be a great party name here in Brazil, even though most politicians here are FDP’s (filhos da puta).
Maybe you should fill you gasoline today for 1.70€. Tomorrow you'll pay 2.00€. HF living the green socialistic lifestyle.
What do you think of this pool on young people? It confirms that boomers keep the traditional parties alive. But the next generation... it goes more Linke than AfD. The latter keeps the same 20% than in the general election.
Exit poll results on how people aged 18-24 voted in today’s German election:
Linke - 27% (partial descendent of the communist party that ruled East Germany)
AfD - 21%
CDU - 12%
SPD - 11%
Greens - 10%
FDP - 6%
BSW - 6%
Young people may like socialist ideas because they promise security and community, like a family.
I tell them it's crucial to distinguish between large-scale government socialism and small, voluntary groups. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb says, 'I am, at the Fed level, libertarian; at the state level, Republican; at the local level, Democrat; and at the family and friends level, a socialist. If that saying doesn’t convince you of the fatuousness of left vs. right labels, nothing will,' showing that socialism works best when it's small and voluntary.
This morning's result: FDP and BSW didn't make it in.
That gives parliament the resulting seats:
And we will probably end up with a Grand Coalition of Union/Social-Democrats.
