Discussion
All four of these are the same pattern at increasingly smaller magnitudes.
If you’re saying because the percentage move up wasn’t enough, by that standard there haven’t been any cycles, just diminishing returns. 2021 wasn’t like 2017 wasn’t like 2013.
I lean more towards your second assertion. Which supports the idea that you can't look at past "cycles" to say what will or should happen now.
In terms of time from a low to a new high, length of drawdown, and percentage drawdown, we have always followed a very tight and predictable pattern.
I’d love for 2026 to break that cycle, but it’s intact until it’s broken.
I don't think there has been enough time to say there are patterns. The conditions are constantly changing and the reasons for drawdowns are always different. Cycles have been an influencer talking point.