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September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)

September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)

The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.

#macro

Onwards.

🐂
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BoomTown 1y ago

What happens if we haven’t cured inflation? Employment is high, real inflation is 7%+ and central banks are cutting rates to make debt more affordable in order to protect asset prices (cascading concerns).

That scenario doesn’t sound good but seems like it is playing out. Might not be a “recession” but isn’t that what is happening?

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Jose Sammut 1y ago

There will be no inflation. We've (China mostly but globally) over invested in manufacturing and hr is becoming more productive with AI. Asset prices might moon if fed prints (for whatever reason) but I think energy will go lower once tensions cool. Especially if Trump.

I'm happy to wait till after election to start gambling in stonx again.