My criticism with this is that you can't game theory 8 billion individuals. Even if you were to disregard the importance of all but the 1000 most influential/poweful people, there is enough coinflip decisions every year that entropy compounds exponentially. Some of his analysis is good but it's impossible to effectively predict even the vaguest state of the world more than 40 years in the future.

I genuinely believe that 1-10 motivated individuals could make the difference between the US or Nigeria being the dominant world power a century from now and even if we were in the timeline where that happens, we wouldn't know any of those individuals today.

Even with game theory you can only map out broad trends, not even the change of trends. There's too much entropy for anything more.