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No I think Bitcoin still has parabolic price discovery in store for 2026.

I think the bear markets up until this point have been driven by OGs dumping their bags onto retail. I think they started to do this in October which resulted in the 30% dump. As a net result institutions now have more bitcoin. I think institutions are using the widespread belief in these 4 year price cycles as a way to build even bigger positions.

As Saylor says, Bitcoin's killer app is digital credit. Institutions are going to be acquiring bitcoin capital & selling bitcoin backed credit. This is highly profitable in fiat terms & doesn't require bitcoin to be sold. The profit is in the balance sheet as unrealised (paper) gains but still hits the P&L.

Bitcoiners are currently selling their sats to intuitions & OG whales are currently relinquishing control of the price. It's not something I want or celebrate, it's just what I see happening. I don't want plebs selling more sats than they need to at a big discount.

🟢🟢🟢🟢 is still in play.

2Pac 0mo ago

I see it playing out differently but we shall see. I think we are seeing a relief rally now after a big drop. Bulls give a push 98-108 before selling continues and price takes another nosedive. We crack MSTR cost basis and selling continues, fear goes up again and then we get some support in the low 70s high 60s where we get another rally slash chop before one last drop where finally have consolidation before the next bull cycle can begin.

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Discussion

2Pac 0mo ago

Not all institutions are long only players they can make profits of bitcoin going down not just up. They will go with the trend. Right now it’s down and it will take a lot of demand to overcome the pressure.

Brisket 0mo ago

True.

Not all institutions are playing the long game.

There will be winners & losers.

2Pac 0mo ago

They will go long as soon as all the juice is squeezed out of the short side.

Brisket 0mo ago

The Fed has pivoted.

$80K was the bottom unless wall st pukes.

As you say, we will see.

2Pac 0mo ago

Don’t see the liquidity going straight into boosting price we have some technical levels to overcome before anything becomes bullish.