I always had the idea that OTC would be limited/ending.

Having observed last year I start to doubt.

What if it is a self regulating mechanism, higher prices will mean more who are willing to sell.

OTC had some 500k #Bitcoin in 2021 and some 150k beginning this year.

First thought is big decrease.

But without knowing total in and outflow during that same period a lot of guessing is left.

Exchanges have some 1 million #Bitcoin in custody.

But how much of those can they sell without getting into problems ?

Mining numbers are known and very rough, Microstrategy is buying that full supply on its own (just to give an idea what is roughly happening at this moment).

Apparently the demand can still be supported at ~$100k.

But the real test will be if this hold for long and what if even more demand shows up from Governments and other huge players ?

Will OTC get enough inflow to keep Exchanges free from a demand explosion, or will it be fought out in the open where everyone can see the huge demand candles and an empty supply side ?

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I wonder how many Bitcoin are permanently held (see $mstr) versus lightly held (bitcoin spot ETFs). You would think the percentage of permanently held would always increase over decades. Would be interesting to see governments, individuals, corporations publicly time locking bitcoin.