Friendly reminder: The Yield Curve is STILL inverted, 2yrs later.
That's deeper and longer than any inversion in the last 40yrs.
Recessions come after yield curve inversions. And we still haven't had ours yet.
Discussion
Generally recession happens when yield curve gets uninverted. The treasury by issuing large quantity of short term bills have lead to artificial inversion of yield curve for soo long. When the long durations bonds starts to hit the market, then there would be real bond market crisis.
Yup. There's a lot of bullishness out there right now saying we're out of the woods. I've been arguing we aren't.